
Fiscal Alternatives to the Drummond report by FTGU
The Drummond report, to be released on February 15th, will likely recommend deep cuts to public services and other austerity measures. I spoke to Salimah Valiani, an economist with the Ontario Nurses Association, whose report Fixing the Fiscal House: Alternative Macroeconomic Solutions for Ontario, shows that Ontario fiscal crisis is exaggerated and argues that Ontario has a revenue problem and not a spending problem. It provides alternatives to the austerity measures of the Drummond report.
This interview has been condensed.
Q: In your report, you write that compared to several countries, Ontario has relatively small deficit-to-GDP and debt-to-GDP ratios. Can you explain this further?
SV: The amount of public debt that is being carried by the government relative to the wealth being produced is the debt to GDP ratio. In Ontario, it is at 34% and at the national level it is at 32%. Now this compares with about 58% for Germany; 41% for the USA and in an extreme case is Greece which is over 100%.
According to the bankers in Ontario and according to Moody’s, there’s a fiscal crisis, but when we look at the debt to GDP ratio around the world especially in rich countries, we see that Ontario has a low debt-to-GDP ratio.
The deficit to GDP ratio is also low. The deficit is the amount of shortfall for any particular year. The current rate is 3%, 3% in a capitalist economy is very standard.
At a 3% deficit, we need to question why there is now an urge, not only on the part of Drummond, but more importantly on the part of the ruling party in Ontario and most of the opposition, to get of that 3% by 2017. We need to put that questions as Ontarians and not leave it to Drummond.
There isn’t a crisis in Ontario. Like there isn’t a crisis in Germany which is upheld as a very high performing country though it’s debt to GDP ratio is 58%. So if there isn’t a crisis, what is the fuss about?
Q: We have heard a lot about Greece and the austerity measures there. The media paints Greece as a country that has out of control spending. Your report argues to the contrary. Can you talk about the revenue problem as oppose to the spending problem in Greece and how that relates to Ontario.
SV: In Greece, when you study the longer economic history, you see there’s an incredible low rate of tax collection on the wealthy, on corporations and even on small businesses. There are also many tax breaks.
The debt that is accumulated in Greece is due to the inability of the government to collect money which then can spend socially on programs for the people. Because the revenue is so low relative to other European countries there’s social spending is low.
In Ontario, we have a similar situation, if we look at fiscal 1998 and fiscal 2003, we actually lost $6.9 billion in fiscal revenue. Why? Because of tax cuts again on corporations, companies and wealthy individuals.
That’s just a five year figure, from 2003 we have to calculate how much more have been lost. Even after the Conservative party was voted out of Ontario, the tax cuts continued and there is a plan to continue them still. We need to calculate from 2003 onwards to know further losses that have been the reality for the Ontario government. What we do know, for the calculation right now, is that Ontario is third from the bottom in terms of public social spending in Canada.
Q: How has austerity measures in Greece made things worse?
SV: Austerity is cutting public spending which targets public sector workers. What we see in Greece is a huge increase in unemployment because the public sector workers are losing their jobs and that then means that you have even less tax collection. The Greek unemployment rate is now 17% and that is at least 6% more than it was before the public spending cuts happened in 2010. We had 17.5% in 2011 and before that, it was 11.4%.
In Ontario, we have had a lot of job losses and we have a higher rate of unemployment than most of the other provinces in Canada.
If we also entertain public sector spending cuts, we’re simply going to add to the numbers of unemployed workers. Similar to Greece, we will have less fiscal capacity, more workers out of jobs and less able to pay taxes. We will dig ourselves into a further hole except that we will bring down the deficit –this is the argument that is being made.
Q: There’s a lot of buzz around the Drummond report being released on Feb. 15th. The report is treated like it’s the answers to all of Ontario’s problems by the mainstream media and these answers are given by one man - Don Drummond, who is the former economist for TD Bank. What else can you tell us about him?
SV: Prior to that, he was working in Paul Martin’s office back when the Canadian government decided to get rid of the debt quickly and made immense cuts in health transfers to the provinces. That was the design of Don Drummond.
Q: We’ve already heard a little bit about the contents of Drummond report such as reducing annual spending increases to 1% and 3% for health care. What consequences will this have for health care and nurses?




